Wednesday, April 23, 2008

The CCA Model


The Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), is the second-generation regional climate model developed
specifically for Australasian region and developed by CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research in Australia. The CCAM has also been evaluated in several international model inter-comparison exercises to be among the best climate model for Asian region (McGregor et al, 1998).


McGregor, J. L., Katzfey, J. J. and Nguyen, K. C. 1998: Fine resolution simulations of climate change for Southeast Asia. Final report for a research project commissioned by Southeast Asian Regional Committee for START (SARCS). Aspendale, Vic. CSIRO Atmospheric Research, 35 p.


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Friday, August 10, 2007

Lesbianism: All in the nose/genes?


That is a question that seems to be answered in the affirmative, at least for mice. A recent study of mice found that by switching one gene (for those into such things, the Trpc2 gene) off the female mice engaged in strictly male behavior such as mounting, pelvic thrusting, and making male calls. Seems this particular gene is responsible for the functioning of a part of the mouse nose that is involved in sensing pheromones.




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New Model: Some near term offset of anthropogenic warming


A new model, published in Science, that includes more information about the internal variability of the Earth system (e.g. El Ninos, etc.) predicts some potential for ameliorating anthropogenic warming in the next tens years (yet about 50% of the years after 2009 are still predicted to be warmer than 1998 (the warmest so far)).



___

Science 10 August 2007:

Vol. 317. no. 5839, pp. 796 - 799

DOI: 10.1126/science.1139540



Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a

Global Climate Model



Doug M. Smith,* Stephen Cusack, Andrew W. Colman, Chris K. Folland,

Glen R. Harris, James M. Murphy



Previous climate model projections of climate change accounted for

external forcing from natural and anthropogenic sources but did not

attempt to predict internally generated natural variability. We

present a new modeling system that predicts both internal variability

and externally forced changes and hence forecasts surface temperature

with substantially improved skill throughout a decade, both globally

and in many regions. Our system predicts that internal variability

will partially offset the anthropogenic global warming signal for the

next few years. However, climate will continue to warm, with at least

half of the years after 2009 predicted to exceed the warmest year

currently on record.

Figure 4
Fig. 4. Globally averaged annual mean surface temperature
anomaly (relative to 1979–2001) forecast by DePreSys starting from June
2005. The CI (red shading) is diagnosed from the standard deviation of
the DePreSys ensemble, assuming a t distribution centered on
the ensemble mean (white curve). Also shown are DePreSys and ensemble
mean NoAssim (blue curves) hindcasts starting from June 1985 and June
1995, together with observations from HadCRUT2vOA (black curve).
Rolling annual mean values are plotted seasonally from March, June,
September, and December. The mean bias as a function of lead time was
computed from those DePreSys hindcasts that were unaffected by Mount
Pinatubo (SOM text) and removed from the DePreSys forecast (but not the
hindcasts).



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Friday, July 27, 2007

Science Mag: Editorial - Climate: Game Over

Science Logo
Science Magazine's Donald Kennedy published an editorial today declaring the public debate over anthropogenic climate change as being over (the scientific debate has been (mostly) done for some time). Why you might ask? Well here are his words:
With respect to climate change, we have abruptly passed the tipping point in what until recently has been a tense political controversy. Why? Industry leaders, nongovernmental organizations, Al Gore, and public attention have all played a role. At the core, however, it's about the relentless progress of science. As data accumulate, denialists retreat to the safety of the Wall Street Journal op-ed page or seek social relaxation with old pals from the tobacco lobby from whom they first learned to "teach the controversy." Meanwhile, political judgments are in, and the game is over. Indeed, on this page last week, a member of Parliament described how the European Union and his British colleagues are moving toward setting hard targets for greenhouse gas reductions.


Donald Kennedy Editorial Climate: Game Over, Science 27 July 2007: Vol. 317. no. 5837, p. 425

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The Cat Cameback

Recent genetic work by Driscoll et al. reveals that the domestic cat was domesticated in the Near (Middle) East, likely in the "Fertile Crescent" likely coinciding with village development at the onset of agriculture.

"The Near Eastern Origin of Cat Domestication" Science 27 July 2007: Vol. 317. no. 5837, pp. 519 - 523

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Thursday, July 26, 2007

AIDS from HIV: Some moreso than others

a8664_1444.gif An interesting article in Science News points to the genetic markers that contribute to resistance to AIDS. Seems that about 1 in 300 people that contract HIV have an immune response that keeps the virus largely at bay for 10 years or more. Seems the key for some of this resistence is a section of genetic material that was itself part of a long forgotten viral infection sometime in human history. A genetic fossil. Here's the quote:

One protective variation was in a gene called HCP5. Goldstein says that the gene presents an intriguing subject for further study because it is an endogenous human retrovirus. That is, HCP5 is a genetic fossil of an ancient virus that once infected people and eventually wormed its way into the human genome. "We're working hard to establish if this new gene contributes to [HIV] control," says Goldstein.
So far they have found the genetic reasons for about 15% of the variablity in susceptiblility to infection.

AIDS Abated: Genome scans illuminate immune control of HIV, Science News, Week of July 21, 2007; Vol. 172, No. 3 , p. 35

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Wednesday, July 21, 2004

It’s a Heartache

The Spare Tire of Health or Die Hard?

Several studies [1] show that a diet that allows a high fat intake, such as Atkins, increases risk for heart disease for certain people. Some people on low-carb diets have experienced arterial blockage despite having lost weight. (This shows that though there is a link between heart disease and obesity it is not a one-to-one relationship). Some also believe that a number of dieters have become so carbophobic that they are avoiding good carbohydrates such as fiber and may well not be getting the level of vitamins and minerals that they need.

[1] "Counting Carbs" Science News, July 17, 2004; Vol. 166, No. 3 , p. 40 (free access)


Keywords: Diet, Health


Tuesday, July 20, 2004

Superfund Me!

Would you like PCBs with that?

There is a new fright on the dieting scene, body pollution! When people lose weight through fat metabolization anything that might also be dissolved in that fat will also be freed into the blood stream. This is the mechanism behind acid “flash backs.” Well it turns out that quite a few environmental pollutants are fat soluble. Also, when people lose weight there is a natural hormone that is released to slow the body’s metabolism. This theoretically is designed to help a person survive a period without food. Drug manufacturers are interested in manipulating the body’s response to this hormone since preventing it from doing its job would help many lose weight faster.

To that end scientists investigated the blood levels of the hormone (leptin) in obese patients put on calorie restricted diets [1]. In addition to the hormone they also tracked the levels of 14 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and 11 pesticides. What they found was that the pollution cocktail increased by 23 percent in the blood stream and that even when leptin levels declined the body’s metabolism remained suppressed. The only explanation was that the pollution cocktail was somehow involved though the exact mechanism is unknown.



Keywords: Pollution, Pesticides, Xenohormones, Diet



[1] "A Toxic Side of Weight Loss: Pollutants may slow body's metabolism" Science News, July 17, 2004; Vol. 166, No. 3 ($ subscription article)

References (free access)

Thursday, July 15, 2004

Brave Old World

Brave Old World
Toward the end of the Stone Age, about 30,000 years ago, there was a dramatic increase [1]($ subscription article) in the number of people surviving long enough to be grandparents (age 30!). The sudden availability of people with greater knowledge had a deep impact on society according to researchers. The archeological record shows an explosion in artwork and ornamentation that occurred around the same time. The larger available and more knowledgeable population might also have led to the establishment of agrarian cultures that would eventually evolve into the fiefdoms and kingdoms of ancient history.

In order to determine the age at which the subject died, the researchers used a new technique of comparing the teeth from contemporary children and extrapolating tooth wear expected over the years.


Keywords: society, human pre-history, culture


[1] "Living Long in the Tooth: Grandparents may have rocked late Stone Age" Science News, July 10, 2004; Vol. 166, No. 2 , p. 20

References (free access)

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